SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 4 min agoCloses May 10, 2026 · 1d

Aalesunds FK vs. SK Brann

Leader sits at 44% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

44%

SK Brann

runner-up 30¢leader 44¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

30¢

Draw (Aalesunds FK vs. SK Br

Spread

14pp

contested

24h volume

$15

thin orderbook

Closes

May 10, 2026

1 days

Venue

Polymarket

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodaySK Brann: 42% (3 days, 3 points)SK Brann: 42% on 2026-05-08Draw (Aalesunds FK vs. SK Brann): 33% (3 days, 3 points)Draw (Aalesunds FK vs. SK Brann): 33% on 2026-05-08Aalesunds FK: 27% (3 days, 3 points)Aalesunds FK: 27% on 2026-05-08
SK Brann42¢Draw (Aalesunds FK vs. SK Brann)33¢Aalesunds FK27¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market represents the aggregated prediction that a match between Aalesunds FK and SK Brann will end in a draw, currently priced at 39%. A draw is currently the most-probable single outcome, ahead of an Aalesunds FK win at 32%, with SK Brann's win probability implied in the remaining portion. The probability is influenced by recent team form, head-to-head history, and tactical matchups. The prediction will resolve when the match is played and the final result is determined. Low trading volume in recent hours suggests limited price movement or fresh information entering the market.

  • Current draw probability (39%) exceeds Aalesunds FK win probability (32%), indicating the market expects a relatively balanced contest
  • Match outcome depends on team form, injuries, lineup decisions, and tactical setup entering game day
  • SK Brann's win probability is the residual third outcome, implicitly priced lower than both draw and Aalesunds FK outcomes
  • Zero 24-hour trading volume on both contracts suggests prices may be stale and not reflecting the most recent developments
  • Resolution occurs at match completion, with no interim data points or early indicators; full certainty only arrives post-match

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.