ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 9, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.

Winner-take-all · 2 outcomes2 contractsPolymarketclosed 3 h agoCloses May 9, 2026 · 0d

AC Nagano Parceiro vs. FC Gifu - More Markets: AC Nagano Parceiro (-2.5)

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 11% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

11%

AC Nagano Parceiro (-1.5)

0¢runner-up 3¢leader 11¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

3¢

AC Nagano Parceiro (-2.5)

Spread

8pp

contested

24h volume

$30

thin orderbook

Closes

May 9, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

2 bound

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

AC Nagano Parceiro (-1.5)33¢AC Nagano Parceiro (-2.5)29¢

Top 2 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

AC Nagano Parceiro vs. FC Gifu - More Markets: AC Nagano Parceiro

2 contracts$30

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

AC Nagano Parceiro vs. FC Gifu - More Markets: AC Nagano Parceiro (-2.5)

0xe61808…e3a1

3¢+3pp$30P→

AC Nagano Parceiro vs. FC Gifu - More Markets: AC Nagano Parceiro (-1.5)

0xdbac8a…9596

11¢+1pp$0P→

What moved the line

May 8AC Nagano Parceiro (-2.5)↑3pp26→29¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 2 contracts (11% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.

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