2026 Academy of Country Music Award for Female Artist of the Year
Leader sits at 81% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ella Langley
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
Lainey Wilson
Spread
76pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$47
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2026 Academy of Country Music Award for Female Artist of the Year
Analysis
The current 76% probability suggests strong market confidence that Ella Langley will win the 2026 Academy of Country Music Award for Female Artist of the Year, based on available information as of early May 2026. This reflects her perceived lead in visibility, streaming performance, and industry recognition relative to competitors like Lainey Wilson at 11%. The probability level indicates meaningful uncertainty remains—roughly 1-in-4 chance an alternative winner emerges. The main drivers are Ella Langley's recent chart performance and award nominations, weighed against other nominees' promotional momentum and late-year industry campaigning. The ACM Awards ceremony in September 2026 will definitively resolve this outcome. Until then, major shifts could result from unexpected chart dominance, viral moments, or voting bloc preferences within the country music industry.
- ›Ella Langley's streaming and radio performance metrics relative to other nominees through spring 2026
- ›Number and timing of award nominations and wins Ella Langley receives from other voting bodies (CMT, CMA, Grammy) between now and September
- ›Strength of competing nominees' chart positions and industry momentum in summer 2026
- ›ACM voting eligibility and historical patterns in Female Artist category outcomes
- ›Contract liquidity and trading volume ($51-63 in 24h vol) suggesting moderate market confidence rather than consensus certainty
What moved the line
- May 6Ella Langley↑11pp77→88¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Lainey Wilson↓10pp15→5¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Ella Langley↓5pp88→83¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Ella Langley↑4pp71→75¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Lainey Wilson↓3pp19→16¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (81% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.