Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis - More Markets
Leader sits at 71% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 55%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
55¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$2
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis - More Markets
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis - More Markets: Albirex Niigata (-2.5)
0x1e0203…ea73
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xc21a62…0eea
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xbff960…8b67
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xbeb972…3a3f
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x168e56…f6b6
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x1c95fd…fbab
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis - More Markets: Tokushima Vortis (-2.5)
0x5dd98a…38d8
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis - More Markets: Tokushima Vortis (-1.5)
0x7eb8e5…c63f
Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis - More Markets: Albirex Niigata (-1.5)
0x01a64b…9a7e
Analysis
This market indicates a 37% probability that the Albirex Niigata vs. Tokushima Vortis match will feature more than the projected number of goals or goals+cards combined. The probability reflects typical offensive output expectations for a J-League fixture between these teams, influenced by their recent form, head-to-head tendencies, and defensive capabilities. The main factors driving this level are each team's scoring average and defensive record in recent matches, which establish a baseline expectation for total market action. The match result itself—scheduled for a specific date in the J-League season—will provide definitive resolution, as actual totals will either exceed or fall short of the threshold. Market participants are pricing in a more likely scenario of fewer total outcomes than the 'more' threshold, suggesting current defensive form or lower-scoring trends between these opponents.
- ›Albirex Niigata's offensive output over the last 5-10 J-League matches compared to the historical average for this matchup
- ›Tokushima Vortis' defensive record and goals-conceded rate in recent fixtures
- ›Head-to-head historical trends between the two teams showing typical goal-scoring patterns
- ›Injury status or recent tactical changes for key attacking or defensive players on either side
- ›Weather conditions or scheduling factors (if applicable) that could affect match tempo and total scoring
What moved the line
- May 6Albirex Niigata (-2.5)↓24pp34→10¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 3.5↓24pp41→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 4.5↓23pp34→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Tokushima Vortis (-1.5)↓22pp38→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Albirex Niigata (-1.5)↓21pp41→20¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.