Algeria vs. Austria
Leader sits at 41% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 40%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Austria
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
40¢
Algeria
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$134
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 28, 2026
50 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Algeria vs. Austria
Analysis
This 32% probability reflects the combined market expectation that Algeria will defeat Austria in an upcoming match. The significant 20-percentage-point gap between Polymarket (35%) and Kalshi (15%) suggests disagreement about Algeria's chances, potentially driven by different assessments of recent form, head-to-head records, or team composition. Volume concentration in Argentina-Algeria contracts rather than Austria-Algeria contracts indicates less direct market certainty about the specific Austria matchup. The outcome will be determined when the match is played, making team news, injury status, and lineup announcements in the days prior key drivers of any probability shifts before the event resolves.
- ›Polymarket prices Algeria at 35% versus Kalshi at 15%, indicating a substantial venue-level disagreement that may reflect different user bases or information sets
- ›The top-volume contract is Argentina vs. Algeria (not Austria), suggesting market participants have more conviction about other matchups in this tournament or series
- ›Austria trades at 73% against Jordan and Algeria at 60% against Jordan in separate contracts, creating potential arbitrage implications if these represent the same tournament structure
- ›No clear scheduled date visible in the data; resolution timing and whether this is a knockout or group-stage match would influence probability stability
- ›The relatively low absolute volumes across most contracts ($0–$349 per 24h) indicate thin liquidity, making individual large trades more likely to move probabilities significantly
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.