Degerfors vs AIK Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$35
12 contracts
Closes
May 24, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Kalmar vs Halmstad Winner” vs “Sirius vs Orgryte Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kalmar vs Halmstad Winner
Cluster 2
Sirius vs Orgryte Winner
Cluster 3
BK Hacken vs Malmo Winner
Cluster 4
AIK vs Djurgarden Winner
Analysis
This market estimates a 40% probability that Degerfors wins an upcoming match against AIK. The probability sits between two venues with notably different assessments: Kalshi traders price it at 35% while Polymarket traders assess it at 47%, suggesting meaningful disagreement about the teams' relative strength. The outcome depends primarily on current team form, head-to-head historical performance, and any lineup or injury changes before the match. The resolution will occur when the match is played, making recent team statistics and roster status the main information sources that could shift this probability before the event concludes.
- ›Kalshi and Polymarket show a 12 percentage-point gap, with Polymarket assigning materially higher probability to Degerfors winning, suggesting traders on different venues weight available information differently
- ›Volume concentration on Kalshi (the top contract has $443 24h volume) versus minimal volume on the direct Polymarket Degerfors-AIK contract indicates liquidity may be concentrated on related markets rather than this specific matchup
- ›The Swedish Hockey League reference in the contract data requires verification of sport classification and opponent accuracy to confirm this market is pricing the stated matchup correctly
- ›Historical head-to-head records between these two teams and their current season standings or recent performance trends would be primary drivers of the true probability
- ›Injury reports and confirmed lineup information closer to match date would provide concrete data to either validate or contradict the current 40% estimate
What moved the line
- May 8Tie↑3pp21→24¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.