2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Action Anime
Leader sits at 65% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Solo Leveling Season 2 -Arise from the Shadow-
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
My Hero Academia FINAL SEASO
Spread
60pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$46
thin orderbook
Closes
May 23, 2027
379 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Action Anime
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Action Anime?: Solo Leveling Season 2 -Arise from the Shadow-
KXANIMEBAC-26-SOL
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Action Anime?: Tie
KXANIMEBAC-26-TIE
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Action Anime?: Gachiakuta
KXANIMEBAC-26-GOC
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Action Anime?: ONE PIECE
KXANIMEBAC-26-ONE
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Action Anime?: My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON
KXANIMEBAC-26-MYH
Analysis
The 67% probability indicates market participants view one specific anime title as the clear favorite to win the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Action Anime. This reflects relatively strong consensus among traders, though the 17-contract structure means the leader must still compete against 16 other candidates. The probability is shaped by the anime's recognition within fan communities, critical reception during the 2025–2026 season, and historical voting patterns of Crunchyroll's audience. The award ceremony announcement—scheduled for early summer 2026—will resolve the market, making pre-ceremony weeks the final opportunity for new information to shift odds. Key drivers include international social-media engagement metrics, industry reviews, and whether competing titles gain unexpected momentum closer to voting.
- ›Leading title's cumulative viewership and subscriber engagement on Crunchyroll platform during eligibility period
- ›Critical reception scores and fan-voting patterns in similar anime award contexts (Crunchyroll Awards history, MyAnimeList user ratings)
- ›Strength of competing titles' action sequences, narrative arcs, and cultural relevance entering the voting window
- ›Date of Crunchyroll Award voting window opening and closing—any major platform announcements or competitive title releases in weeks prior
- ›Market liquidity and contract volume concentration—whether 67% reflects genuine conviction or thin trading in a niche category
What moved the line
- May 6Solo Leveling Season 2 -Arise from the Shadow-↑7pp52→59¢ · Kalshi
- May 6My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON↓5pp24→19¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Solo Leveling Season 2 -Arise from the Shadow-↑3pp49→52¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Solo Leveling Season 2 -Arise from the Shadow-↑3pp59→62¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Solo Leveling Season 2 -Arise from the Shadow-↑3pp62→65¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.