2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Slice of Life Anime
Leader sits at 49% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
The Fragrant Flower Blooms with Dignity
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
My Dress-Up Darling Season 2
Spread
37pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 23, 2027
379 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Slice of Life Anime
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Slice of Life Anime?: CITY THE ANIMATION
KXANIMEBBAC-26-CIT
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Slice of Life Anime?: SPY x FAMILY Season 3
KXANIMEBBAC-26-SPY
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Slice of Life Anime?: My Dress-Up Darling Season 2
KXANIMEBBAC-26-MYD
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Slice of Life Anime?: The Fragrant Flower Blooms with Dignity
KXANIMEBBAC-26-FRA
Analysis
At 67%, the market indicates The Fragrant Flower Blooms with Dignity is the leading candidate for the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Slice of Life Anime. This probability reflects trader assessment of the title's artistic merit, reception, and competitive position relative to other slice-of-life releases in the eligibility window. The current level is supported by moderate trading volume ($115 in 24-hour contracts), suggesting moderate confidence rather than consensus certainty. The probability could shift materially based on critical reception of competing titles, the actual slate of nominees announced by Crunchyroll, and voter sentiment from the anime community and industry professionals who determine the winner. The award announcement, scheduled for late 2026, will fully resolve the outcome. Until then, the 67% reflects genuine uncertainty—a meaningful lead but not a heavy favorite.
- ›The Fragrant Flower Blooms with Dignity faces direct competition from other slice-of-life releases in 2026; runner-up contract is priced at 61%, indicating close competition
- ›24-hour trading volume of $115 is moderate relative to other Crunchyroll award categories, suggesting limited consensus formation among traders
- ›Crunchyroll's official nominee slate has not yet been publicly announced; finalists will be formally determined weeks or months before the award ceremony
- ›The award eligibility window and exact voting criteria (critic votes vs. fan votes vs. jury) will influence which titles are considered and weighted
- ›Past Crunchyroll award results show recognition distributed across multiple slice-of-life titles rather than concentrated single-year dominance
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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