2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Drama Anime
Leader sits at 44% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Takopi's Original Sin
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
The Apothecary Diaries Seaso
Spread
25pp
contested
24h volume
$5
thin orderbook
Closes
May 23, 2027
379 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Drama Anime
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Drama Anime?: The Apothecary Diaries Season 2
KXANIMEBD-26-APO
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Drama Anime?: Takopi's Original Sin
KXANIMEBD-26-TAK
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Drama Anime?: The Summer Hikaru Died
KXANIMEBD-26-SUM
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Drama Anime?: Orb: On the Movements of the Earth
KXANIMEBD-26-ORB
Analysis
The 67% probability indicates that market participants believe the current leader has a two-in-three chance of winning the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Drama Anime. This assessment reflects relatively high confidence compared to the runner-up at 51%, suggesting meaningful differentiation among eligible titles. The primary drivers of this probability are the strength of each anime's critical reception and fan engagement through the voting period, alongside historical patterns in award selection. The resolution catalyst is the Crunchyroll Anime Awards ceremony scheduled for late 2026, when voting concludes and winners are announced. Market prices will likely shift as voting progresses, new episode quality becomes apparent, and competing titles gain or lose momentum in fan discourse. Liquidity remains modest across these contracts, suggesting prices may move on relatively small order flow.
- ›The leader's 67% price reflects a 16-point gap versus the runner-up (51%), indicating material separation but not overwhelming dominance in a multi-outcome contest
- ›Voting mechanics and timing for the 2026 Crunchyroll Awards are not yet publicly finalized; announcement of eligibility windows and voting windows will likely trigger repricing
- ›Cross-category contract prices (e.g., Best Continuing Series at 47¢, Best Anime Song at 61¢) show no dominant frontrunner category, suggesting drama competition remains genuinely open
- ›24-hour volume on the leader contract ($194) is 3x the median volume across top related markets, indicating either information concentration or uneven market participation
- ›The award is determined by public fan voting combined with critical judge votes; shifts in critic consensus or viral fan campaigns during 2026 could materially move prices
What moved the line
- May 6Takopi's Original Sin↑4pp40→44¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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