SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 4 outcomes4 contractsKalshirefreshed 3 min agoCloses May 23, 2027 · 379d

2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Isekai Anime

Leader sits at 80% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

80%

Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 3

runner-up 4¢leader 80¢

Outcomes

4

winner-take-all

Runner-up

Tie

Spread

76pp

dominant leader

24h volume

$186

thin orderbook

Closes

May 23, 2027

379 days

Venue

Kalshi

4 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayRe:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 3: 74% (14 days, 13 points)Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 3: 74% on 2026-05-08Tie: 4% on 2026-04-10Disney Twisted-Wonderland: The Animation — Season 1 "Episode of Heartslabyul": 4% (14 days, 6 points)Disney Twisted-Wonderland: The Animation — Season 1 "Episode of Heartslabyul": 4% on 2026-05-08
Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 374¢Tie4¢Disney Twisted-Wonderland: The Animation — Season 1 "Episode of Heartslabyul"4¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 14d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market estimates the probability that a specific anime title will win the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Isekai category, with the leading candidate priced at 56%. The current front-runner holds a commanding lead over its nearest competitor at 9%, suggesting dominant positioning among industry voters or prediction-market participants. Movements in this market would likely reflect new episode releases, critical reception changes, awards-season buzz, or shifts in how voters weight different titles within the isekai category. The award will be determined when Crunchyroll announces winners, typically occurring in March annually. Until that announcement, the probability reflects expectations about which title judges and voters will ultimately recognize as the year's best example of the isekai anime genre, weighed against uncertainty about judging criteria, voter preferences, and competing entries.

  • The leader maintains a 47-point margin over the runner-up, indicating either strong consensus or thin liquidity in the contract
  • Kalshi volume is distributed across four contracts in this category, with the highest daily volume suggesting uneven trading interest and potential mispricing of alternatives
  • No contrasting view is priced above 9%, which could indicate either narrow field or consolidation around the front-runner rather than genuine competition
  • The award resolution date depends on Crunchyroll's official announcement schedule, which historically occurs months after the eligibility period ends
  • Episode quality, completion status, and fan/critical reception of remaining entries through late 2025 will materially affect the final outcome

What moved the line

  • May 8Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 311pp6374¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 34pp5761¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.