SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 4 outcomes4 contractsKalshirefreshed 2 min agoCloses May 23, 2027 · 379d

2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Main Character

Leader sits at 31% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

31%

Izuku Midoriya

runner-up 23¢leader 31¢

Outcomes

4

winner-take-all

Runner-up

23¢

Sung Jinwoo

Spread

8pp

contested

24h volume

$1

thin orderbook

Closes

May 23, 2027

379 days

Venue

Kalshi

4 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayIzuku Midoriya: 31% (19 days, 7 points)Izuku Midoriya: 31% on 2026-04-22Sung Jinwoo: 24% (19 days, 17 points)Sung Jinwoo: 24% on 2026-05-08Maomao: 16% (19 days, 8 points)Maomao: 16% on 2026-05-07
Izuku Midoriya31¢Sung Jinwoo24¢Maomao16¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 19d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This represents the current betting odds that a specific character will win the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Main Character, with that character priced at 31% likelihood. The leading candidate faces competition from at least three other contenders, with the runner-up at 24%, indicating a competitive field without a dominant favorite. Market prices across related Crunchyroll award categories show strong trading volume and established voter preferences in anime recognition. The probability will largely depend on which anime releases or gains cultural momentum between now and the award ceremony in 2026, as well as voter preference patterns established by Crunchyroll's judging criteria. The award announcement, typically held in early 2027, will definitively resolve this outcome. Current pricing suggests meaningful uncertainty, with the leader holding only a modest edge over alternatives rather than commanding consensus.

  • The leading character contract trades at 31%, with the runner-up at 24%, indicating a three-way or four-way competitive race rather than a clear consensus choice
  • Related Crunchyroll award categories show strong market liquidity ($64–$194 daily volume), suggesting active trader engagement and information flow across the ballot
  • The award resolves after voting concludes, likely in early 2027, meaning price movements between May 2026 and announcement will reflect new anime releases, cultural momentum, and voter signaling
  • Historical Crunchyroll awards have recognized both ongoing series (One Piece at 47¢) and newer releases, indicating no established bias toward veteran vs. emerging characters
  • The four-contract structure and modest leader probability (31% vs. ~25% baseline for four equal outcomes) implies traders perceive material differentiation among candidates without extreme confidence in any single outcome

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.