2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best New Series
Leader sits at 64% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Gachiakuta
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
22¢
Takopi's Original Sin
Spread
42pp
contested
24h volume
$244
thin orderbook
Closes
May 23, 2027
379 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best New Series
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best New Series?: Takopi's Original Sin
KXANIMEBNS-26-TAK
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best New Series?: SAKAMOTO DAYS
KXANIMEBNS-26-SAK
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best New Series?: Gachiakuta
KXANIMEBNS-26-GAC
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best New Series?: Tie
KXANIMEBNS-26-TIE
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best New Series?: Clevatess
KXANIMEBNS-26-CLE
Analysis
This 14% probability reflects the likelihood that a specific anime title will win Crunchyroll's Best New Series award in 2026. The current frontrunner trades at this level, with a significant gap to the second-place contender at 6%, suggesting modest confidence in the winner rather than a concentrated field. The probability depends primarily on which series receive official nominations and how the Crunchyroll voting committee weights factors like critical reception, viewership, cultural impact, and industry recognition. The main catalyst for resolution will be the official announcement of nominees and the final award ceremony, typically held in early 2027. Current trading volume remains thin at $194 across related contracts, indicating limited market participation. Comparable award categories like Best Continuing Series show stronger conviction pricing (47¢ for One Piece), while newer categories show more uncertainty, which is reflected in the 14% baseline for this emerging category.
- ›Official nomination announcement determines the final field of eligible contenders, directly narrowing outcomes available to traders
- ›Voting methodology—whether based on industry panels, fan voting, or committee decisions—will determine which series receive sufficient support to win
- ›Trading volume of $194 in the top contract suggests limited information aggregation; significant new data about jury composition or voting rules could move prices materially
- ›Series released between mid-2025 and early 2026 must generate sufficient critical and audience traction to be considered viable candidates
- ›Historical Crunchyroll award patterns and judge preferences, if publicly documented, would provide comparative data for evaluating frontrunner probability relative to competition
What moved the line
- May 6Gachiakuta↑56pp5→61¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Gachiakuta↓29pp39→10¢ · Kalshi
- May 2SAKAMOTO DAYS↓8pp10→2¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Gachiakuta↓5pp10→5¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Gachiakuta↑4pp61→65¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.