SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 6 outcomes6 contractsKalshirefreshed 2 min agoCloses May 23, 2027 · 379d

2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Opening Sequence

Leader sits at 18% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

18%

"ReawakeR (feat. Felix of Stray Kids)" by LiSA

runner-up 17¢leader 18¢

Outcomes

6

winner-take-all

Runner-up

17¢

"THE REVO" by PORNOGRAFFITTI

Spread

1pp

contested

24h volume

$26

thin orderbook

Closes

May 23, 2027

379 days

Venue

Kalshi

6 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtoday"ReawakeR (feat. Felix of Stray Kids)" by LiSA: 17% (14 days, 10 points)"ReawakeR (feat. Felix of Stray Kids)" by LiSA: 17% on 2026-05-08"THE REVO" by PORNOGRAFFITTI: 17% (14 days, 10 points)"THE REVO" by PORNOGRAFFITTI: 17% on 2026-05-07"On The Way" by AiNA THE END: 17% (14 days, 6 points)"On The Way" by AiNA THE END: 17% on 2026-05-08
"ReawakeR (feat. Felix of Stray Kids)" by LiSA17¢"THE REVO" by PORNOGRAFFITTI17¢"On The Way" by AiNA THE END17¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 14d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

The market prices the current leading candidate for the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Opening Sequence at a 67% probability of winning, significantly higher than its nearest competitor at 51%. This price reflects traders' assessment based on the quality, reception, and voting patterns of recent anime openings in the broader Crunchyroll ecosystem. The probability would likely move if viewer engagement metrics shift, if rival openings gain unexpected cultural momentum, or if voting data becomes available ahead of the award ceremony. The Crunchyroll Anime Awards typically announce finalists and results in late 2026, which represents the primary uncertainty resolution point. Current trading volume remains modest, suggesting limited market consensus-building at this stage of the awards season.

  • The leading contract trades 16 percentage points above its nearest competitor, indicating significant market differentiation rather than genuine uncertainty between top contenders
  • Trading volume is relatively thin ($194 maximum 24h volume across tracked categories), suggesting early-stage price formation with potential for repricing as the awards season progresses
  • The Best Anime Song category shows substantially higher confidence (61¢) than other categories, revealing voter attention may cluster on music rather than opening sequences
  • No official nominee list or voting data has been released; current prices reflect pre-season positioning based on critical reception alone
  • A formal Crunchyroll Anime Awards announcement with nominee reveals would likely trigger significant repricing across all category contracts

What moved the line

  • May 7"On The Way" by AiNA THE END5pp1015¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.