SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 7 outcomes7 contractsKalshirefreshed 3 min agoCloses May 23, 2027 · 379d

2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (Arabic)

Leader sits at 22% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 18%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

22%

Ghada Omar as Yor Forger

runner-up 18¢leader 22¢

Outcomes

7

winner-take-all

Runner-up

18¢

Tariq Obaid as Taro Sakamoto

Spread

4pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 23, 2027

379 days

Venue

Kalshi

7 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayGhada Omar as Yor Forger: 22% (15 days, 11 points)Ghada Omar as Yor Forger: 22% on 2026-05-02Tariq Obaid as Taro Sakamoto: 18% (15 days, 6 points)Tariq Obaid as Taro Sakamoto: 18% on 2026-05-07Moataz El—Shazly as Heisuke Mashimo: 8% (15 days, 9 points)Moataz El—Shazly as Heisuke Mashimo: 8% on 2026-04-22
Ghada Omar as Yor Forger22¢Tariq Obaid as Taro Sakamoto18¢Moataz El—Shazly as Heisuke Mashimo8¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 15d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This probability represents the market's current estimate that an unnamed Arabic-language voice performer will win the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Voice Artist Performance. At 22%, this contract leads a seven-way split of possible winners, suggesting significant uncertainty about who the eventual recipient will be. The probability reflects limited trading volume (7 contracts on Kalshi) and sparse price discovery in this particular category. The outcome depends on both the actual voting patterns of Crunchyroll's audience and industry voters, and on which voice performances from 2025–2026 anime releases are recognized as most outstanding. The award ceremony and official winner announcement—scheduled for early 2026—will provide definitive resolution. Until then, the market is pricing in moderate confidence in this leading candidate relative to alternatives, with the remaining 78% distributed among six other potential winners.

  • Only 7 Kalshi contracts track this outcome, indicating thin liquidity and potentially unreliable price discovery compared to more heavily traded anime award categories
  • The leading contract (KXANIMEBVAPA-26-GHA at 22%) significantly outperforms the Kalshi average price of 10%, suggesting some traders hold stronger conviction than others
  • No information provided identifies which specific voice artist or performance this contract references, making it difficult to independently verify the basis for the 22% probability
  • Crunchyroll's voting process and audience composition for this category are not specified; changes in voting methodology or participation could shift probabilities
  • The broader anime awards ecosystem shows other categories (Best Anime Song at 61%, Best Continuing Series at 47%) drawing higher confidence, suggesting this voice artist category may face structural headwinds

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.