SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 7 outcomes7 contractsKalshirefreshed 3 min agoCloses May 23, 2027 · 379d

2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (Castilian Spanish)

Leader sits at 20% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

20%

Marta Barbará as Kaoruko Waguri

runner-up 10¢leader 20¢

Outcomes

7

winner-take-all

Runner-up

10¢

Adrián Pineda as Rudo

Spread

10pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 23, 2027

379 days

Venue

Kalshi

7 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayMarta Barbará as Kaoruko Waguri: 20% (6 days, 6 points)Marta Barbará as Kaoruko Waguri: 20% on 2026-04-21Adrián Pineda as Rudo: 11% (6 days, 4 points)Adrián Pineda as Rudo: 11% on 2026-04-21Cristina Peña as Reze: 10% (6 days, 3 points)Cristina Peña as Reze: 10% on 2026-04-21
Marta Barbará as Kaoruko Waguri20¢Adrián Pineda as Rudo11¢Cristina Peña as Reze10¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 6d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This contract tracks the odds that a specific performer wins the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Voice Acting in Castilian Spanish. The current 20% probability reflects moderate confidence in the leading candidate relative to other nominees. The primary drivers of this probability are the historical voting patterns of Crunchyroll's audience, the visibility and critical reception of performances within the Spanish-language anime dubbing community, and competitive strength of alternative nominees. The award outcome will resolve in late May or early June 2026 when Crunchyroll announces the winner at its annual ceremony. Market participants are evaluating the frontrunner's chances based on early fan engagement signals and industry recognition of the performances in question. Relatively modest trading volume ($11,000 on the leader contract) suggests limited participation or tight consensus around the top candidate's prospects.

  • The leading contract prices at 20%, significantly above the runner-up at 10%, indicating perceived separation between top two contenders rather than a crowded field
  • Total contract liquidity across 7 nominees remains modest, suggesting limited market depth or analyst uncertainty about the field as a whole
  • Crunchyroll awards voting typically reflects fan popularity combined with critic input; historical voting data for dubbing categories would indicate whether 20% aligns with typical winning probabilities
  • The award ceremony date in May–June 2026 is the fixed resolution point; no preliminary voting results or nominee announcements appear to have shifted market consensus recently
  • Castilian Spanish dubbing represents a niche category with smaller voter base compared to mainstream award categories, which can amplify variance in probability estimates

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.