2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime "Must Protect At All Costs" Character
Leader sits at 29% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Kaoruko Waguri
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
Maomao
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 23, 2027
379 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime "Must Protect At All Costs" Character
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime "Must Protect At All Costs" Character?: Kaoruko Waguri
KXANIMEMPAACC-26-KAO
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime "Must Protect At All Costs" Character?: Tie
KXANIMEMPAACC-26-TIE
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime "Must Protect At All Costs" Character?: Takopi
KXANIMEMPAACC-26-TAK
2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award for Best Anime "Must Protect At All Costs" Character?: Maomao
KXANIMEMPAACC-26-MAO
Analysis
This represents traders' assessment that a specific character will win the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Award in the 'Must Protect At All Costs' category, currently priced at 67% likelihood. The leader holds this elevated probability because voters typically cluster support around characters from high-profile or recently completed series with strong emotional resonance—a category the leading character evidently satisfies. The probability could shift if competing anime from 2025–2026 release seasons generate unexpectedly fervent fan campaigns or if voting patterns diverge from historical character-award trends. Resolution depends on the Crunchyroll Anime Awards ceremony date and official announcement of the winner in this specific category. Limited trading volume ($58–$194 per day across related contracts) means new information or coordinated voting awareness could move prices materially.
- ›Character originates from a continuing or recent series with sufficient audience reach and narrative prominence to drive sustained voting turnout
- ›The 'Must Protect At All Costs' category reflects emotional-resonance voting; characters from slice-of-life, comedy, or protective-protagonist narratives historically perform well
- ›Related award categories show moderate pricing (47–61¢), suggesting baseline uncertainty across 2026 anime ballot categories rather than dominant market consensus
- ›24-hour trading volumes remain modest ($58–$194), indicating limited real-money validation and susceptibility to shifts as voting approaches
- ›Crunchyroll Awards ceremony timing and voter eligibility criteria are fixed external events; no announced date shift would alter outcome probability materially
What moved the line
- May 7Takopi↑12pp2→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Kaoruko Waguri↑9pp11→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Kaoruko Waguri↓3pp14→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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