Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Ameliano Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
18 contracts
Closes
May 24, 2026
16 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Luqueno vs Libertad Winner” vs “Sportivo Ameliano vs CD Recoleta Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Luqueno vs Libertad Winner
Cluster 2
Sportivo Ameliano vs CD Recoleta Winner
Sportivo Ameliano vs CD Recoleta Winner?: Sportivo Ameliano
KXAPFDDHGAME-26MAY11SPOREC-SPO
Sportivo Ameliano vs CD Recoleta Winner?: Tie
KXAPFDDHGAME-26MAY11SPOREC-TIE
Sportivo Ameliano vs CD Recoleta Winner?: CD Recoleta
KXAPFDDHGAME-26MAY11SPOREC-REC
Cluster 3
Cerro Porteno vs Club Guarani Winner
Cluster 4
San Lorenzo vs Olimpia Winner
Cluster 5
Nacional vs Trinidense Winner
Cluster 6
CS 2 de Mayo vs Rubio Nu Winner
What moved the line
- May 7Nacional↑3pp41→44¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Rubio Nu↑3pp24→27¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.