Argentina vs. Algeria
Leader sits at 70% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 20%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Argentina
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
20¢
Draw (Argentina vs. Algeria)
Spread
50pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$219
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 17, 2026
39 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Argentina vs. Algeria
Analysis
This 35% probability reflects market expectations that Algeria will win an upcoming match against Argentina. The current price sits slightly below Polymarket's 36% level, with Kalshi showing stronger odds for Argentina at 69%. The market is pricing in Argentina as favorites given their stronger recent form and higher FIFA rankings, while Algeria's probability has been depressed despite regional strength. The resolution depends on team composition, recent injuries, and match conditions on the scheduled date. Movement in this probability will likely follow official team roster announcements and any significant personnel changes in the days before kickoff. This represents a relatively competitive matchup where the 35% implies meaningful uncertainty rather than a clear-cut outcome.
- ›Argentina's recent competitive record and FIFA ranking significantly favor them, reflected in the 70¢ contract price versus 10¢ for Algeria
- ›Polymarket prices Algeria 5 percentage points higher than Kalshi, suggesting different trader bases may be evaluating injury reports or team form differently
- ›Low absolute trading volume on Algeria contracts ($349 24h) indicates limited market depth, making prices potentially more volatile to new information
- ›The draw contract trades at 20¢ on Polymarket, suggesting roughly 20% of probability mass assigned to non-decisive outcomes
- ›Scheduled match date and official team announcements will materially shift odds as closer information becomes available
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.