Argentina vs. Austria
Leader sits at 62% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Argentina
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
Draw (Argentina vs. Austria)
Spread
38pp
contested
24h volume
$9
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 22, 2026
44 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Argentina vs. Austria
Analysis
This 35% probability reflects the aggregated market assessment that Argentina will defeat Austria in an upcoming match. The cross-venue gap of 6 percentage points, with Polymarket pricing higher than Kalshi, suggests some disagreement about Austria's competitive position relative to Argentina. Key drivers include each team's current form, head-to-head historical matchups, and squad composition. The probability will sharpen closer to match kickoff as additional team news, injury reports, and betting activity flow into markets. Most movement will likely occur in the final 24-48 hours before the match, when late-arriving information becomes available and casual bettors enter the market.
- ›Polymarket contracts are pricing Austria higher (73¢ on Austria vs. Jordan) compared to Kalshi's implied 30% for Argentina, indicating venue-specific differences in Austria's assessment
- ›Volume concentration shows highest activity on Argentina-Algeria matchups ($349 24h vol), not Argentina-Austria, suggesting uncertainty about which match is being priced
- ›Austria's 73¢ contract suggests markets currently assess Austria as a meaningful competitive threat, contradicting a blowout Argentina favorite scenario
- ›The 6 percentage point spread between venues exceeds typical variance, indicating either different information sets or one venue experiencing less informed pricing
- ›Historical Argentine success and current tournament trajectory versus Austria's recent performance represent the fundamental tension underlying the 35% level
What moved the line
- May 6Argentina↑4pp59→63¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Austria↑3pp19→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Austria↓3pp23→20¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.