Will Arsenal win a trophy this season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 84% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
84%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
1 contracts
Closes
May 30, 2026
21 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?
0x6d6fd5…8595
Analysis
This market estimates the probability that Arsenal FC will win at least one major trophy during the 2026-27 season at 36%, though there's substantial disagreement between venues—Polymarket prices it at 64% while Kalshi averages 34%. The gap likely reflects different trader bases and risk tolerances rather than new information. Arsenal's trophy prospects depend primarily on their squad depth, injury status of key players, and performance in multiple competitions (Premier League, FA Cup, League Cup, and potentially European tournaments). The season concludes in May 2027, but meaningful data will emerge through the winter transfer window (January) and their performance trajectory by February-March, which would indicate their realistic chances in remaining competitions. The outcome hinges on sustained consistency across multiple fronts and avoiding early eliminations in cup competitions.
- ›Arsenal's current league position and point differential from title contenders as of early 2027 will indicate their Premier League trophy viability
- ›Injury status of key attacking and defensive players heading into the final quarter of the season
- ›Performance in January-February 2027 cup matches, particularly early-round exits versus progression, strongly predicts overall trophy probability
- ›Squad acquisition decisions in the January transfer window and whether they address identified weaknesses
- ›Head-to-head fixture results against rival clubs capable of winning the same competitions in February-April 2027
What moved the line
- May 6Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?↑16pp70→86¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?↑6pp64→70¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (84% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.