SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 4 outcomes4 contractsKalshirefreshed 4 min agoCloses Jan 1, 2030 · 1333d

Will Young Thug and Gunna make a song together

Leader sits at 46% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 40%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

46%

Before 2030

runner-up 40¢leader 46¢

Outcomes

4

winner-take-all

Runner-up

40¢

Before 2029

Spread

6pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

Jan 1, 2030

1333 days

Venue

Kalshi

4 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayBefore 2030: 47% (5 days, 4 points)Before 2030: 47% on 2026-04-28Before 2029: 43% on 2026-04-18Before 2028: 38% (5 days, 2 points)Before 2028: 38% on 2026-04-18
Before 203047¢Before 202943¢Before 202838¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 5d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This contract asks whether rappers Young Thug and Gunna will collaborate on a song together by the end of 2030. At 46%, the market prices this as slightly more likely than not. Young Thug and Gunna have collaborated previously and share overlapping creative circles in Atlanta trap music, which supports the possibility of future work together. However, both artists maintain independent project schedules and the five-year timeframe creates uncertainty about whether circumstances will align for a release. The main drivers of probability movements would be any public statements from either artist about planned collaborations, announcements of joint projects or features, or new solo album releases that might indicate their current creative direction. Resolution ultimately depends on whether an official song crediting both artists appears on a commercial release, streaming platform, or official announcement before December 31, 2030.

  • Young Thug and Gunna have previously collaborated (e.g., 'So Much Fun' era projects), providing historical precedent for working together
  • Both artists maintain active independent careers with separate record label relationships and solo project schedules that may or may not intersect
  • Public statements or social media activity from either artist about planned collaborations or features could signal intent to work together
  • A five-year resolution window (through 2030) provides substantial time for industry relationships to evolve, their positions to change, or scheduling to align
  • Official release would require both artists' consent and coordination across production, label clearance, and distribution channels

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.