Will Young Thug and Gunna make a song together
Leader sits at 46% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 40%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before 2030
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
40¢
Before 2029
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
1333 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Young Thug and Gunna make a song together
Will Young Thug and Gunna make a song together?: Before 2027
KXARTISTCOLLABTHUGANDGUNNA-30-2027
Will Young Thug and Gunna make a song together?: Before 2030
KXARTISTCOLLABTHUGANDGUNNA-30-2030
Will Young Thug and Gunna make a song together?: Before 2029
KXARTISTCOLLABTHUGANDGUNNA-30-2029
Will Young Thug and Gunna make a song together?: Before 2028
KXARTISTCOLLABTHUGANDGUNNA-30-2028
Analysis
This contract asks whether rappers Young Thug and Gunna will collaborate on a song together by the end of 2030. At 46%, the market prices this as slightly more likely than not. Young Thug and Gunna have collaborated previously and share overlapping creative circles in Atlanta trap music, which supports the possibility of future work together. However, both artists maintain independent project schedules and the five-year timeframe creates uncertainty about whether circumstances will align for a release. The main drivers of probability movements would be any public statements from either artist about planned collaborations, announcements of joint projects or features, or new solo album releases that might indicate their current creative direction. Resolution ultimately depends on whether an official song crediting both artists appears on a commercial release, streaming platform, or official announcement before December 31, 2030.
- ›Young Thug and Gunna have previously collaborated (e.g., 'So Much Fun' era projects), providing historical precedent for working together
- ›Both artists maintain active independent careers with separate record label relationships and solo project schedules that may or may not intersect
- ›Public statements or social media activity from either artist about planned collaborations or features could signal intent to work together
- ›A five-year resolution window (through 2030) provides substantial time for industry relationships to evolve, their positions to change, or scheduling to align
- ›Official release would require both artists' consent and coordination across production, label clearance, and distribution channels
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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