SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 h agoCloses May 9, 2026 · 0d

Athletic Club vs. Cuiabá EC - More Markets

Leader sits at 63% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 44%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

63%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 44¢leader 63¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

44¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

19pp

contested

24h volume

$2

thin orderbook

Closes

May 9, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 64% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 64% on 2026-05-07Both Teams to Score: 43% (3 days, 2 points)Both Teams to Score: 43% on 2026-05-07O/U 2.5: 35% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 2.5: 35% on 2026-05-08
O/U 1.564¢Both Teams to Score43¢O/U 2.535¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market reflects traders' assessment that both Athletic Club and Cuiabá EC will score in an upcoming match. At 47%, the outcome is leaning toward this occurring, but substantial uncertainty remains. The probability is driven by both teams' recent offensive and defensive form, home/away status, and head-to-head tendencies. Key factors include each team's goal-scoring consistency this season, their defensive vulnerabilities, any lineup changes or injuries, and match venue conditions. The outcome will be determined once the match concludes and the final scoreline is recorded. With zero 24-hour trading volume and wide spreads across related contracts, market liquidity is minimal, suggesting limited trader consensus on this specific outcome.

  • Athletic Club's recent goals-for and goals-against rates compared to Cuiabá EC's defensive performance
  • Cuiabá EC's offensive output and whether their strikers have maintained consistency away from home
  • Confirmed team lineups, key player availability, and any late-notice injury impacts
  • Home advantage and field conditions on match day
  • Head-to-head scoring patterns between these teams in previous fixtures

What moved the line

  • May 7Both Teams to Score4pp4743¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Cuiabá EC (-1.5)3pp1512¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.