Will Jaume Munar win set 1 in the Jaume Munar vs Alexander Shevchenko match
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$433
6 contracts
Closes
Jun 21, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Alexander Zverev win set
Will Alexander Zverev win set 1 in the Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev match: Alexander Zverev
KXATPSETWINNER-26JUN07COBZVE-1-ZVE
Will Alexander Zverev win set 2 in the Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev match: Alexander Zverev
KXATPSETWINNER-26JUN07COBZVE-2-ZVE
Will Alexander Zverev win set 3 in the Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev match: Alexander Zverev
KXATPSETWINNER-26JUN07COBZVE-3-ZVE
Cluster 2
Will Flavio Cobolli win set
Will Flavio Cobolli win set 1 in the Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev match: Flavio Cobolli
KXATPSETWINNER-26JUN07COBZVE-1-COB
Will Flavio Cobolli win set 2 in the Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev match: Flavio Cobolli
KXATPSETWINNER-26JUN07COBZVE-2-COB
Will Flavio Cobolli win set 3 in the Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev match: Flavio Cobolli
KXATPSETWINNER-26JUN07COBZVE-3-COB
Analysis
This contract reflects a 16% probability that Jaume Munar will win the first set against Alexander Shevchenko in their upcoming match. The low probability suggests Shevchenko is favored, likely based on recent form, head-to-head records, or ranking differences between the two players. The main factors driving this assessment are relative player strength, surface conditions if known, and any recent performance data. The match result itself will resolve this contract when it occurs, making the specific match date the primary catalyst for clarity. Factors that could shift the probability include injuries, updated rankings, or new information about either player's conditioning or form leading up to the contest.
- ›Current ATP/professional rankings and recent tournament results for both Munar and Shevchenko
- ›Head-to-head historical record between the two players, if applicable
- ›Surface type of the tournament and each player's documented performance on that surface
- ›Recent form metrics such as win-loss records in the past 4-6 weeks and set-winning percentages
- ›Any reported injuries, illness, or conditioning concerns for either player prior to match day
What moved the line
- Jun 6Alexander Zverev↑23pp40→63¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Flavio Cobolli↑10pp16→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Flavio Cobolli↑4pp2→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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