Australia vs. Türkiye
Leader sits at 54% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Türkiye
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
Draw (Australia vs. Türkiye)
Spread
29pp
contested
24h volume
$39
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 14, 2026
36 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Australia vs. Türkiye
Analysis
This probability reflects the current market expectation that Australia will win in a matchup against Türkiye, with 36% odds implying roughly two-to-one odds in Türkiye's favor. The market is pricing in Türkiye as the stronger team based on recent form and rankings. The probability could shift significantly based on team composition changes, recent injury reports, or head-to-head historical performance. Resolution will depend on the actual match result when this fixture is played. Market liquidity is relatively thin on this contract, with only $28 in 24-hour volume, meaning large bets could move the probability noticeably. Related contracts show mixed confidence across the broader tournament or series context.
- ›Türkiye is priced at 54 cents (54% implied probability) versus Australia on the same matchup, indicating strong market lean toward Türkiye as favorites
- ›Low trading volume ($28 in 24 hours) suggests limited consensus and potential for probability swings with modest additional trading
- ›Related contracts show varying confidence—Paraguay priced at 27 cents against Türkiye but 34 cents when Australia faces Paraguay, indicating tournament-specific dynamics
- ›Match outcome depends entirely on team form, injuries, and composition at the time of play, currently unknown from the contract data
- ›No specific match date is indicated in the contracts, so resolution timing and whether teams will have played other matches first remains uncertain
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.