Austria vs. Jordan
Leader sits at 74% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Austria
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Draw (Austria vs. Jordan)
Spread
58pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$37
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 17, 2026
39 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Austria vs. Jordan
Analysis
This 36% probability reflects market expectations that Austria will defeat Jordan in an upcoming match. The current level sits at the midpoint between two major prediction markets, with Polymarket pricing Austria's victory slightly higher at 36% versus Kalshi's 32%, suggesting some disagreement about Austria's competitive advantage. Austria's higher historical ranking and European league experience typically favor outcomes like this, though Jordan has shown recent improvement in regional competitions. The primary driver moving this probability would be team roster changes, recent performance in qualifying rounds, or injury updates to key players before the match. Market resolution depends on the final match result, which would eliminate all uncertainty about the outcome.
- ›Polymarket contracts show significantly higher Austria odds (73¢) than Kalshi's tie probability (14¢), indicating venue-specific risk assessments or liquidity differences rather than fundamental disagreement
- ›Austria's implied win probability of 36% incorporates European competition experience and historical rankings, but contracts show relatively modest trading volume ($7-5 24h), suggesting limited confidence in either direction
- ›Related Jordan fixtures (vs. Algeria, vs. Argentina) trade at substantially lower prices, indicating market views Jordan as a weaker competitor overall but with context-dependent match dynamics
- ›The 4 percentage point gap between venues persists despite ongoing trading, suggesting structural differences in how each market weights team capabilities or player availability information
- ›Recent team form, injury reports, and pre-match odds movements from traditional sportsbooks would be primary real-time indicators of shifting market consensus
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.