Bank of Israel Decision in July
Leader sits at 66% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
No Change
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
Decrease
Spread
41pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 6, 2026
58 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Bank of Israel Decision in July
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment of the likelihood that Israel's central bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its July 2026 monetary policy meeting. At 41%, the market indicates roughly even odds between a rate cut and other outcomes like holding rates steady or larger adjustments. The current level reflects recent inflation data, economic growth trends, and global monetary policy signals. The Bank of Israel typically bases decisions on domestic price stability and employment conditions, so upcoming inflation reports and economic indicators between now and the July meeting will be primary drivers. The bank's official announcement in July will definitively resolve this contract, making near-term economic data and any forward guidance from officials key catalysts that could shift market expectations in either direction.
- ›Israeli inflation trends relative to the central bank's target range over the next two months
- ›Comparison of interest rate expectations across other central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve and ECB, which influence capital flows
- ›Economic growth forecasts and labor market conditions in Israel heading into the decision
- ›Any official communications or guidance from Bank of Israel leadership between now and July
- ›The specific magnitude of rate adjustments being priced across all contract options, which shows dispersion in market expectations
What moved the line
- May 3Decrease↑9pp28→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3No Change↓8pp71→63¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Decrease↓6pp34→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Decrease↓6pp36→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 7No Change↑3pp61→64¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.