Bay FC vs. Utah Royals FC
Leader sits at 45% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Utah Royals FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Draw (Bay FC vs. Utah Royals
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Bay FC vs. Utah Royals FC
Analysis
This probability represents traders' assessment that Bay FC has a 41% chance of winning an upcoming match against Utah Royals FC, compared to a 33% chance for Utah and 31% for a draw. The current pricing reflects recent team performance, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage factors. The match outcome will be determined by the scheduled game itself, which represents the primary catalyst for resolving this contract. Key drivers of the probability include each team's current league standing, recent form in wins and losses, goalkeeper and defender availability, and historical performance in similar matchups. Any injury announcements or lineup changes in the days before the match could shift the probability significantly.
- ›Bay FC's current league position and points-per-game average compared to Utah Royals FC
- ›Each team's win-loss record in their last 5-10 matches entering this fixture
- ›Confirmed player availability, particularly any key injuries or suspensions
- ›Home vs. away context and historical head-to-head results between the teams
- ›Recent changes in coaching strategy or tactical shifts that affect defensive or offensive performance
What moved the line
- May 8Bay FC↓17pp44→27¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Utah Royals FC↑12pp35→47¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Draw (Bay FC vs. Utah Royals FC)↓6pp32→26¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.