Will Ben make at least 12 three pointers during the BobHQ 3PT Shootout
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$25K
6 contracts
Closes
Jun 15, 2026
18 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Joey make at least 6 three pointers during the BobHQ 3PT Shootout
Cluster 2
Will Fat Perez make at least 11 three pointers during the BobHQ 3PT Shootout
Cluster 3
Will Bob make at least 11 three pointers during the BobHQ 3PT Shootout
Cluster 4
Will Ben make at least 12 three pointers during the BobHQ 3PT Shootout
Cluster 5
Will Jensen make at least 5 three pointers during the BobHQ 3PT Shootout
Cluster 6
Will Binny make at least 11 three pointers during the BobHQ 3PT Shootout
Analysis
This contract asks whether Ben will successfully make at least 12 three-pointers during the BobHQ 3PT Shootout. The 10% probability reflects significant skepticism about Ben reaching this threshold. The low probability appears driven by the demanding nature of the target—12 successful three-pointers is a high bar in competitive shootout conditions—and likely reflects either Ben's historical performance in such events or expectations based on participant skill levels. The contract will resolve once the BobHQ 3PT Shootout takes place and official results are recorded, at which point Ben's actual three-point total will determine the outcome. Currently, comparable shootout targets for other participants (Binny at 11+, Bob at 11+, Fat Perez at 11+) trade slightly higher, suggesting Ben may be viewed as less likely to reach similar performance levels. Trading volume remains modest at $24 over 24 hours.
- ›Ben's historical three-point shooting accuracy and performance in previous similar competitions
- ›The specific format and rules of the BobHQ 3PT Shootout (time limits, ball availability, shooting position constraints)
- ›Competitive context: how Ben's performance typically compares to peers like Binny, Bob, and Fat Perez in shooting competitions
- ›Whether 12 three-pointers represents an outlier performance or a realistic upper-range outcome for Ben
- ›The scheduled date and confirmed participation of all shootout competitors
What moved the line
- May 27Joey: 6+ made three pointers↑28pp9→37¢ · Kalshi
- May 26Bob: 11+ made three pointers↑16pp4→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Binny: 11+ made three pointers↑14pp12→26¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Joey: 6+ made three pointers↑13pp37→50¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Bob: 11+ made three pointers↑12pp20→32¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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