Belgium vs. Egypt
Leader sits at 58% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Belgium
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
Draw (Belgium vs. Egypt)
Spread
34pp
contested
24h volume
$149
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 15, 2026
37 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Belgium vs. Egypt
Analysis
This 38% probability reflects market expectations that Belgium will win an upcoming match against Egypt. The current price suggests traders view Belgium as the slight favorite, with Egypt considered a competitive underdog. Market pricing would likely shift based on team form and lineup availability in the weeks before the match. Recent performance trends, injury reports, and head-to-head historical records typically influence such probabilities. The match outcome itself will definitively resolve this contract when played, making pre-match team news and betting market movements the primary drivers of probability changes until kickoff.
- ›Belgium's FIFA ranking and recent competitive record versus Egypt's ranking and recent form
- ›Availability of key players for both teams, particularly any injuries or suspensions announced before the match
- ›Historical head-to-head results and goal differential between the two nations in competitive matches
- ›Home or away venue designation and how it affects typical win probabilities for each side
- ›Trading volume and line movement on major prediction markets in the 48 hours before kickoff
What moved the line
- May 6Draw (Belgium vs. Egypt)↓3pp29→26¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.