SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 7 outcomes7 contractsKalshirefreshed 2 min agoCloses Jun 1, 2026 · 23d

Will BNB trimmed mean be above $660.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026

Leader sits at 71% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 59%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

71%

Above $670.00

runner-up 59¢leader 71¢

Outcomes

7

winner-take-all

Runner-up

59¢

Above $680.00

Spread

12pp

contested

24h volume

$73

thin orderbook

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

23 days

Venue

Kalshi

7 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAbove $670.00: 29% (6 days, 6 points)Above $670.00: 29% on 2026-05-08Above $680.00: 38% (6 days, 6 points)Above $680.00: 38% on 2026-05-08Above $690.00: 33% (6 days, 6 points)Above $690.00: 33% on 2026-05-08
Above $670.0029¢Above $680.0038¢Above $690.0033¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 6d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

What moved the line

  • May 8Above $670.0031pp6029¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Above $690.0021pp2344¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Above $670.0021pp4061¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Above $700.0021pp1031¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Above $710.0019pp726¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.