Winner-take-all · 8 outcomes8 contractsKalshirefreshed 3 min agoCloses Jun 1, 2026 · 23d

Will BNB trimmed mean be below $540.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 45% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

45%

Below $600.00

0¢runner-up 35¢leader 45¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

35¢

Below $590.00

Spread

10pp

contested

24h volume

$146

thin orderbook

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

23 days

Venue

Kalshi

8 bound

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

Below $600.0040¢Below $590.0027¢Below $580.0026¢

Top 3 candidates by current price · 6d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will BNB trimmed mean be below $

8 contracts$146

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will BNB trimmed mean be below $560.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $560.00

KXBNBMINMON-BNB-26MAY31-56000

13¢−3pp$124K→

Will BNB trimmed mean be below $590.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $590.00

KXBNBMINMON-BNB-26MAY31-59000

35¢−13pp$22K→

Will BNB trimmed mean be below $530.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $530.00

KXBNBMINMON-BNB-26MAY31-53000

3¢−5pp$0K→

Will BNB trimmed mean be below $540.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $540.00

KXBNBMINMON-BNB-26MAY31-54000

5¢+11pp$0K→

Will BNB trimmed mean be below $550.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $550.00

KXBNBMINMON-BNB-26MAY31-55000

9¢+6pp$0K→

Will BNB trimmed mean be below $570.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $570.00

KXBNBMINMON-BNB-26MAY31-57000

20¢−6pp$0K→

Will BNB trimmed mean be below $580.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $580.00

KXBNBMINMON-BNB-26MAY31-58000

27¢−5pp$0K→

Will BNB trimmed mean be below $600.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $600.00

KXBNBMINMON-BNB-26MAY31-60000

45¢−11pp$0K→

What moved the line

May 6Below $600.00↓27pp80→53¢ · Kalshi
May 6Below $590.00↓25pp70→45¢ · Kalshi
May 6Below $580.00↓25pp60→35¢ · Kalshi
May 3Below $590.00↑23pp47→70¢ · Kalshi
May 6Below $570.00↓23pp49→26¢ · Kalshi

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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