Bolivia LFPB
Leader sits at 49% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: Bolívar
Outcomes
16
winner-take-all
Runner-up
49¢
Winner: Nacional Potosí
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
16 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Bolivia LFPB: Winner
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: Bolívar
0x9cf27f…8ad9
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: Universitario de Vinto
0x2c9068…97c9
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: ABB
0xf6c347…6429
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: Bulo Bulo
0x2f0aad…1626
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: Blooming
0x6ced30…b0ad
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: Aurora
0x66b1d3…2842
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: Real Tomayapo
0x70814f…56dd
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: The Strongest
0xfdfdda…fcbe
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: Always Ready
0x18d26e…2e62
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: Real Oruro
0xad52de…61a8
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: Real Potosí
0x9e8978…8ea8
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: Oriente Petrolero
0x413b39…2fcc
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: Indipendiente Petrolero
0xce6651…4d8b
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: GV San Jose
0x4bad63…2b99
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: Guabirá
0x78d247…cce7
Bolivia LFPB: Winner: Nacional Potosí
0xca9709…3eb6
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that Bulo Bulo will win the Bolivia LFPB championship. The current 50% price reflects a highly fragmented betting market where five teams are priced identically, suggesting either genuine uncertainty about the likely winner or thin liquidity across contracts with no recent trading volume. The championship outcome will depend on the teams' relative performance in remaining fixtures, head-to-head records, and any late-season injuries or roster changes. The final standings and champion will be determined when the LFPB season concludes, at which point the winner will be definitively established. Movement in this probability would reflect either new information about team form, personnel changes, or increased market participation that consolidates views on the most likely winner.
- ›All five contracts are priced equally at 50 cents, indicating perfectly balanced odds rather than differentiated conviction
- ›24-hour trading volume across all contracts is zero, suggesting minimal recent market activity or liquidity
- ›The multi-outcome structure distributes probability evenly, which could indicate either genuine parity in team strength or insufficient data to favor any single outcome
- ›Bulo Bulo's status as the display leader is based on contract order rather than higher probability than the four other teams
- ›Final resolution depends on the actual championship winner when the LFPB season concludes, with no intermediate data points provided
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.