SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 16 outcomes16 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 min agoCloses Dec 31, 2026 · 236d

Bolivia LFPB

Leader sits at 49% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

49%

Winner: Bolívar

runner-up 49¢leader 49¢

Outcomes

16

winner-take-all

Runner-up

49¢

Winner: Nacional Potosí

Spread

0pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

236 days

Venue

Polymarket

16 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayWinner: Bolívar: 48% (12 days, 9 points)Winner: Bolívar: 48% on 2026-05-08Winner: Nacional Potosí: 48% (12 days, 11 points)Winner: Nacional Potosí: 48% on 2026-05-08Winner: Guabirá: 48% (12 days, 10 points)Winner: Guabirá: 48% on 2026-05-08
Winner: Bolívar48¢Winner: Nacional Potosí48¢Winner: Guabirá48¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 12d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that Bulo Bulo will win the Bolivia LFPB championship. The current 50% price reflects a highly fragmented betting market where five teams are priced identically, suggesting either genuine uncertainty about the likely winner or thin liquidity across contracts with no recent trading volume. The championship outcome will depend on the teams' relative performance in remaining fixtures, head-to-head records, and any late-season injuries or roster changes. The final standings and champion will be determined when the LFPB season concludes, at which point the winner will be definitively established. Movement in this probability would reflect either new information about team form, personnel changes, or increased market participation that consolidates views on the most likely winner.

  • All five contracts are priced equally at 50 cents, indicating perfectly balanced odds rather than differentiated conviction
  • 24-hour trading volume across all contracts is zero, suggesting minimal recent market activity or liquidity
  • The multi-outcome structure distributes probability evenly, which could indicate either genuine parity in team strength or insufficient data to favor any single outcome
  • Bulo Bulo's status as the display leader is based on contract order rather than higher probability than the four other teams
  • Final resolution depends on the actual championship winner when the LFPB season concludes, with no intermediate data points provided

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.