Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets
Leader sits at 70% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 51%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
51¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$957
thin orderbook
Closes
May 7, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x32d4ab…3c4b
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Racing Club (-1.5)
0xc988a4…7704
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x5c8e41…b6f1
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Botafogo FR (-1.5)
0xd6abb8…2411
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Racing Club (-2.5)
0x15e436…84a3
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xd61678…cc29
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Botafogo FR (-2.5)
0x50a3e5…ff1a
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x9bdf90…2be9
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc91f8e…fc4a
Analysis
This 31% probability reflects the market's assessment that Racing Club will win the upcoming match against Botafogo FR. The probability sits between the implied odds of Racing Club at -2.5 spread (11¢) and Botafogo FR at -2.5 (14¢), suggesting relatively even match expectations with slight lean toward Racing Club. Key factors driving this level include recent team form, head-to-head history, and whether either squad carries injury concerns into the fixture. The market would likely shift if one team experiences significant roster changes before kickoff or if recent performance data shifts expectations. The match itself represents the primary resolution event—the final score will determine whether Racing Club wins, loses, or draws, directly settling the probability's validity.
- ›Racing Club's recent win-loss record and current league position compared to Botafogo FR's form heading into the fixture
- ›Head-to-head historical performance between these teams and whether one holds a statistical advantage in direct matchups
- ›Absence or presence of key injured players for either squad that would materially affect competitive balance
- ›Home vs. away status and venue advantage, as this significantly impacts competitive balance in Copa Libertadores and domestic competitions
- ›Market spread between Racing Club (-2.5) trading at 11¢ versus Botafogo FR (-2.5) at 14¢ suggests asymmetric confidence despite similar spreads
What moved the line
- May 7O/U 1.5↑15pp70→85¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Botafogo FR (-2.5)↓14pp21→7¢ · Polymarket
- May 7O/U 2.5↑13pp44→57¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Racing Club (-1.5)↓13pp23→10¢ · Polymarket
- May 7O/U 4.5↑11pp9→20¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.