Brazil Série B
Leader sits at 49% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: Londrina
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
49¢
Winner: Athletic
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 12, 2026
217 days
Venue
Polymarket
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Brazil Série B: Winner
Brazil Série B: Winner: Botafogo-SP
0x7c0264…7164
Brazil Série B: Winner: Juventude
0xef8dfc…3172
Brazil Série B: Winner: Ponte Preta
0x60b4c4…a375
Brazil Série B: Winner: Novorizontino
0x683138…dc1b
Brazil Série B: Winner: América Mineiro
0xb68a13…f457
Brazil Série B: Winner: Cuiabá
0x4adec7…2a5d
Brazil Série B: Winner: CRB
0xe56aad…a84a
Brazil Série B: Winner: Ceará
0x9202aa…fba4
Brazil Série B: Winner: Operário Ferroviário
0x775ecd…b807
Brazil Série B: Winner: Avaí
0x20c745…9d3e
Brazil Série B: Winner: Goiás
0x9cb04b…a7f8
Brazil Série B: Winner: Fortaleza
0x217019…4336
Brazil Série B: Winner: Atlético Goianiense
0xaf41e5…3eba
Brazil Série B: Winner: Náutico
0x3f631c…007d
Brazil Série B: Winner: Sport
0xf5de0e…c7c2
Brazil Série B: Winner: São Bernardo
0xdff20a…6444
Brazil Série B: Winner: Vila Nova
0x68da91…0ba8
Brazil Série B: Winner: Criciúma
0x42357e…6b47
Brazil Série B: Winner: Athletic
0x9201ff…a43d
Brazil Série B: Winner: Londrina
0xd60d86…15c8
Analysis
The 51% probability indicates that market participants view Flamengo as the marginal favorite to win Brazil's Série A championship, with a near-even chance assigned to competing outcomes. Flamengo holds a thin edge over runner-up São Paulo and other contenders, reflecting the competitive balance of the league at this stage of the season. The probability would shift based on team performance in remaining matches, injury developments to key players, and relative momentum heading into the final stretch. The championship will be decided when all regular season matches conclude and, if necessary, playoff fixtures are completed later in 2026. Current market activity shows moderate volume on the leading contract ($106 in 24h trading) compared to alternatives, suggesting some confidence in the current assessment but limited conviction.
- ›Flamengo's current league position and point differential relative to São Paulo and other top-four contenders
- ›Injury status and availability of key players on leading teams
- ›Head-to-head records and remaining fixture difficulty for title contenders
- ›Historical performance patterns of these clubs in championship run-ins
- ›Market liquidity concentration: 51¢ price has ~$106 daily volume vs ~$56 for each alternative outcome
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.