Brazil vs. Morocco
Leader sits at 61% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Brazil
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
23¢
Draw (Brazil vs. Morocco)
Spread
38pp
contested
24h volume
$221
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 13, 2026
35 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Brazil vs. Morocco
Analysis
This 34% probability reflects the market's assessment that Brazil has roughly a two-in-three chance of winning this matchup against Morocco. The odds place Brazil as the clear favorite, with contract prices on Polymarket showing Brazil trading around 59 cents versus Morocco at 16 cents. The probability could shift based on team form, injury reports, and tactical adjustments in the weeks leading up to the match. A 4-percentage-point gap between venues suggests some disagreement about the outcome, potentially reflecting different liquidity levels or trader composition. The resolution will depend entirely on the match result whenever it is scheduled to be played.
- ›Brazil's current FIFA ranking and recent competitive record compared to Morocco's performance in 2026
- ›Injury status of key players for both squads at the time of the match
- ›Head-to-head historical results and tactical matchups between the two teams
- ›Volume concentration: Brazil contract at 59¢ on Polymarket has $175 24h volume versus Morocco at 16¢ with $261 volume, suggesting less consensus on the favorite
- ›Venue-level disagreement: Polymarket averaging 35% versus Kalshi at 31% indicates different market signals across platforms
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.