Will Bryson break or tie 2+ course records
Leader sits at 87% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 51%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2+ course records
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
51¢
3+ course records
Spread
36pp
contested
24h volume
$42
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Bryson break or tie
Will Bryson break or tie 5+ course records?: 5+ course records
KXBRYSONCOURSERECORDS-26-5
Will Bryson break or tie 4+ course records?: 4+ course records
KXBRYSONCOURSERECORDS-26-4
Will Bryson break or tie 3+ course records?: 3+ course records
KXBRYSONCOURSERECORDS-26-3
Will Bryson break or tie 2+ course records?: 2+ course records
KXBRYSONCOURSERECORDS-26-2
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that a golfer named Bryson will break or tie two or more course records during an upcoming period. At 33%, the market is pricing this as a moderately unlikely but plausible outcome. The main factors influencing this level are Bryson's recent form and scoring patterns relative to existing course records at venues he's scheduled to play. Course records are typically set by elite performers in optimal conditions, so the probability reflects both Bryson's skill level and the rarity of such performances. The resolution will depend on specific tournaments played and whether his scores match or exceed the historical benchmarks. An upcoming tour schedule or major championship appearance would be the primary catalyst clarifying whether this outcome materializes.
- ›Bryson's scoring average compared to course record margins at his scheduled venues
- ›Number of tournaments Bryson will play during the resolution period and difficulty of those courses
- ›Weather and course condition variations that affect scoring difficulty across different events
- ›Whether Bryson's recent performance trajectory shows improvement or decline relative to his historical standards
- ›Specific course records at each venue—some may be recent or difficult to break, while others could be more attainable
What moved the line
- May 62+ course records↑5pp77→82¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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