Fenerbahce Istanbul vs Manisa BBSK Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2
14 contracts
Closes
May 24, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Petkim Spor Aliaga vs Tofas SK Bursa Winner” vs “Esenler Erokspor vs Merkezefendi Belediyesi Denizli Basket Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Petkim Spor Aliaga vs Tofas SK Bursa Winner
Cluster 2
Esenler Erokspor vs Merkezefendi Belediyesi Denizli Basket Winner
Esenler Erokspor vs Merkezefendi Belediyesi Denizli Basket Winner?: Merkezefendi Belediyesi Denizli Basket
KXBSLGAME-26MAY100600ESEYMB-YMB
Esenler Erokspor vs Merkezefendi Belediyesi Denizli Basket Winner?: Esenler Erokspor
KXBSLGAME-26MAY100600ESEYMB-ESE
Cluster 3
Galatasaray SK vs Besiktas JK Winner
Cluster 4
Fenerbahce Istanbul vs Bahcesehir Koleji Winner
Cluster 5
Turk Telekom vs Manisa BBSK Winner
Cluster 6
Mersin Buyuksehir Belediyesi vs Trabzonspor Basketbol Winner
Cluster 7
Bursaspor vs Karsiyaka Basket Winner
Analysis
This market reflects a 3% probability that Fenerbahçe Istanbul will defeat Manisa BBSK in an upcoming matchup. The low probability reflects Fenerbahçe's historical dominance over lower-division opponents—Manisa BBSK competes in a significantly lower tier of Turkish basketball—combined with Fenerbahçe's consistent performance in recent seasons. The probability could shift upward if Fenerbahçe faces unexpected roster absences, injuries to key players, or enters the game with reduced motivation. Conversely, it would decline further if Fenerbahçe confirms full availability and demonstrates strong form leading into the fixture. The outcome will be determined by the scheduled game result itself, which would provide definitive resolution once played.
- ›Fenerbahçe's historical win rate and ranking relative to Manisa BBSK's competitive tier
- ›Fenerbahçe's current roster health and player availability at the time of the matchup
- ›Recent form and momentum of both teams in their respective leagues
- ›Whether the game serves as a regular-season fixture or secondary competition where Fenerbahçe might field reserve lineups
- ›Manisa BBSK's recent performance trends and any notable victories against higher-ranked opponents
What moved the line
- May 8Turk Telekom↑7pp15→22¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Trabzonspor Basketbol↑7pp15→22¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Bursaspor↑6pp14→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Manisa BBSK↑5pp4→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Mersin Buyuksehir Belediyesi↑5pp4→9¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.