Bundesliga - Top 4 Finish
Leader sits at 95% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 51%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
RB Leipzig
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
51¢
Stuttgart
Spread
44pp
contested
24h volume
$254
thin orderbook
Closes
May 28, 2026
19 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Bundesliga - Top 4 Finish
Analysis
Stuttgart is currently favored at 51% to finish in the Bundesliga's top four, reflecting slightly better odds than a coin flip based on aggregated market pricing. This probability reflects Stuttgart's current league position, remaining fixtures, and head-to-head records against competitors also competing for top-four spots. The market assessment could shift higher if Stuttgart wins consecutive matches or lower if key rivals secure crucial victories. The probability will be increasingly resolved as the Bundesliga season approaches its conclusion, with the final standings determined on the last day of play. Factors driving the current level include Stuttgart's current points total, goal differential relative to fourth place, fixture difficulty, and injury status of key players. The outcome becomes certain once the final matchday concludes and standings are finalized.
- ›Stuttgart's current goal differential and points total relative to the fifth-place team as of early May 2026
- ›Fixture difficulty in remaining matches—strength of schedule against top-half versus bottom-half opponents
- ›Injury status and availability of Stuttgart's key offensive and defensive players during final weeks
- ›Direct head-to-head results and remaining fixtures between Stuttgart and other teams within 5 points of fourth place
- ›Historical volatility of Bundesliga final-day standings—frequency of mid-table teams climbing into or falling out of top four in recent seasons
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.