CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia - More Markets
Leader sits at 59% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 41%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
41¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
May 7, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia - More Markets
CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x09165e…4af3
CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x1765d6…36ed
CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x30e102…51a6
CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x1a4935…521c
CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xa27982…f72c
CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia - More Markets: CA Barracas Central (-1.5)
0xb1c84f…49ab
CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia - More Markets: Club Olimpia (-1.5)
0x82b4d2…891c
CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia - More Markets: Club Olimpia (-2.5)
0x86e768…09e0
CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia - More Markets: CA Barracas Central (-2.5)
0xdb3d67…d50e
Analysis
This market reflects a 41% probability that both CA Barracas Central and Club Olimpia will score in their upcoming match. The price implies this outcome is considered less likely than alternatives, though still a material possibility. Recent betting activity centers on Club Olimpia's goal-spread contracts, which trade in the low teens, suggesting limited volume and wider disagreement across traders about the match outcome. The probability of both teams scoring typically depends on team attacking capability, defensive vulnerabilities, and playing style—whether teams prioritize open play or defensive solidity. The match itself serves as the primary catalyst that will definitively resolve this contract. Without current injury reports, recent form data, or confirmed team lineups, the 41% level reflects baseline expectations that at least one team may struggle to find the net or one side will be defensively strong enough to limit scoring opportunities.
- ›Recent 24-hour trading volume is zero across all three related contracts, indicating minimal new information flow and reliance on older calibration
- ›Club Olimpia's related goal-spread markets (−1.5 and −2.5) trade at 11¢ and 12¢ respectively, suggesting modest confidence in any particular scoreline outcome
- ›The both-teams-to-score contract at 41¢ is the dominant traded outcome among the three linked markets, representing where traders have concentrated their positions
- ›No injury announcements, team news, or lineup confirmations appear to have moved prices in the past day, suggesting traders are awaiting closer-to-match information
- ›The match itself is the sole binary catalyst—team selection, weather conditions, and tactical setup on match day will likely shift probabilities materially in final hours
What moved the line
- May 7Club Olimpia (-2.5)↑36pp5→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 7O/U 2.5↑26pp32→58¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Both Teams to Score↑26pp42→68¢ · Polymarket
- May 7CA Barracas Central (-2.5)↑24pp4→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 7O/U 1.5↑23pp60→83¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.