SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 8, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketclosed 1 d agoCloses May 7, 2026 · 0d

CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia - More Markets

Leader sits at 59% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 41%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

59%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 41¢leader 59¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

41¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

18pp

contested

24h volume

$2K

modest

Closes

May 7, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 83% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 83% on 2026-05-07Both Teams to Score: 68% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 68% on 2026-05-07O/U 2.5: 58% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 58% on 2026-05-07
O/U 1.583¢Both Teams to Score68¢O/U 2.558¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market reflects a 41% probability that both CA Barracas Central and Club Olimpia will score in their upcoming match. The price implies this outcome is considered less likely than alternatives, though still a material possibility. Recent betting activity centers on Club Olimpia's goal-spread contracts, which trade in the low teens, suggesting limited volume and wider disagreement across traders about the match outcome. The probability of both teams scoring typically depends on team attacking capability, defensive vulnerabilities, and playing style—whether teams prioritize open play or defensive solidity. The match itself serves as the primary catalyst that will definitively resolve this contract. Without current injury reports, recent form data, or confirmed team lineups, the 41% level reflects baseline expectations that at least one team may struggle to find the net or one side will be defensively strong enough to limit scoring opportunities.

  • Recent 24-hour trading volume is zero across all three related contracts, indicating minimal new information flow and reliance on older calibration
  • Club Olimpia's related goal-spread markets (−1.5 and −2.5) trade at 11¢ and 12¢ respectively, suggesting modest confidence in any particular scoreline outcome
  • The both-teams-to-score contract at 41¢ is the dominant traded outcome among the three linked markets, representing where traders have concentrated their positions
  • No injury announcements, team news, or lineup confirmations appear to have moved prices in the past day, suggesting traders are awaiting closer-to-match information
  • The match itself is the sole binary catalyst—team selection, weather conditions, and tactical setup on match day will likely shift probabilities materially in final hours

What moved the line

  • May 7Club Olimpia (-2.5)36pp541¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7O/U 2.526pp3258¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Both Teams to Score26pp4268¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7CA Barracas Central (-2.5)24pp428¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7O/U 1.523pp6083¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.