CA Boston River vs. Millonarios FC
Leader sits at 52% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Millonarios FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Draw (CA Boston River vs. Mi
Spread
24pp
contested
24h volume
$44
thin orderbook
Closes
May 7, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CA Boston River vs. Millonarios FC
Analysis
This probability indicates Millonarios FC is favored to win an upcoming match against CA Boston River, with current market pricing at 51% relative to a 28% chance of a draw. The prediction reflects comparative team strength, recent form, and venue considerations. Movement in this probability would depend on team news—injuries, roster changes, or tactical shifts—and historical head-to-head performance. The outcome will be determined once the match concludes. Current trading volume is minimal, suggesting limited market participation and potentially wider bid-ask spreads. Analysts evaluating this matchup would examine each team's league position, goal differential, recent results, and home-field advantage before match day.
- ›Millonarios FC's current league standing and win percentage this season versus CA Boston River's defensive record and goal-scoring output
- ›Recent form over the last 5-10 matches for each team, including streaks of wins, losses, or draws that might indicate momentum shifts
- ›Head-to-head historical results if available, including goals scored and conceded in prior matchups between these specific clubs
- ›Availability of key players or known injuries that could materially affect starting lineups or team performance
- ›Home venue advantage and any relevant environmental factors (altitude, weather conditions, travel fatigue) for the scheduled match date
What moved the line
- May 8Millonarios FC↑54pp46→100¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Draw (CA Boston River vs. Millonarios FC)↓30pp30→0¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 h ago.