SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 9, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all · 3 outcomes3 contractsPolymarketclosed 2 h agoCloses May 7, 2026 · 0d

CA Boston River vs. Millonarios FC

Leader sits at 52% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

52%

Millonarios FC

runner-up 28¢leader 52¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

28¢

Draw (CA Boston River vs. Mi

Spread

24pp

contested

24h volume

$44

thin orderbook

Closes

May 7, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayMillonarios FC: 100% (4 days, 2 points)Millonarios FC: 100% on 2026-05-08Draw (CA Boston River vs. Millonarios FC): 0% (4 days, 3 points)Draw (CA Boston River vs. Millonarios FC): 0% on 2026-05-08CA Boston River: 22% (4 days, 3 points)CA Boston River: 22% on 2026-05-07
Millonarios FC100¢Draw (CA Boston River vs. Millonarios FC)0¢CA Boston River22¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 4d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This probability indicates Millonarios FC is favored to win an upcoming match against CA Boston River, with current market pricing at 51% relative to a 28% chance of a draw. The prediction reflects comparative team strength, recent form, and venue considerations. Movement in this probability would depend on team news—injuries, roster changes, or tactical shifts—and historical head-to-head performance. The outcome will be determined once the match concludes. Current trading volume is minimal, suggesting limited market participation and potentially wider bid-ask spreads. Analysts evaluating this matchup would examine each team's league position, goal differential, recent results, and home-field advantage before match day.

  • Millonarios FC's current league standing and win percentage this season versus CA Boston River's defensive record and goal-scoring output
  • Recent form over the last 5-10 matches for each team, including streaks of wins, losses, or draws that might indicate momentum shifts
  • Head-to-head historical results if available, including goals scored and conceded in prior matchups between these specific clubs
  • Availability of key players or known injuries that could materially affect starting lineups or team performance
  • Home venue advantage and any relevant environmental factors (altitude, weather conditions, travel fatigue) for the scheduled match date

What moved the line

  • May 8Millonarios FC54pp46100¢ · Polymarket
  • May 8Draw (CA Boston River vs. Millonarios FC)30pp300¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 h ago.