SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 1 d agoCloses May 8, 2026 · 0d

CA Nacional Potosí vs. Club Aurora - More Markets

Leader sits at 85% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 67%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

85%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 67¢leader 85¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

67¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

18pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 8, 2026

0 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 84% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 84% on 2026-05-07O/U 2.5: 66% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 2.5: 66% on 2026-05-08Both Teams to Score: 62% (3 days, 2 points)Both Teams to Score: 62% on 2026-05-07
O/U 1.584¢O/U 2.566¢Both Teams to Score62¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market reflects a 51% probability that both CA Nacional Potosí and Club Aurora will score at least one goal in their upcoming match. The current probability sits above the midpoint, suggesting traders view both teams as likely to find the net rather than one dominating defensively. Historically, two-way scoring outcomes in Bolivian football depend on team form, defensive stability, and offensive capability. The probability would rise if recent data shows both teams consistently scoring in recent fixtures, and would fall if either team enters the match depleted through injury or suspension. The match itself serves as the primary resolution event—the outcome becomes certain only when the final whistle sounds and the goal tally is recorded. Liquidity has been minimal recently, meaning the current price reflects a small but committed group of traders' assessments rather than broad market consensus.

  • Both teams' goal-scoring rates and defensive records in recent matches indicate whether they typically participate in high-scoring games
  • Availability of key offensive and defensive players due to injury, suspension, or international duty directly affects scoring likelihood
  • Head-to-head historical results between CA Nacional Potosí and Club Aurora establish baseline expectations for competitive balance
  • Current league standings and form trajectories for each team show momentum and attacking/defensive capability
  • The match date and scheduling context (whether it follows a congested fixture period) impacts player fitness and tactical approach

What moved the line

  • May 7Club Aurora (-1.5)16pp2711¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7O/U 1.516pp6884¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Club Aurora (-2.5)14pp2410¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7O/U 2.59pp5564¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Both Teams to Score9pp5362¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.