CA Nacional Potosí vs. Club Aurora - More Markets
Leader sits at 85% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 67%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
67¢
O/U 2.5
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 8, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CA Nacional Potosí vs. Club Aurora - More Markets
CA Nacional Potosí vs. Club Aurora - More Markets: Club Aurora (-1.5)
0xe0c9f1…b7d6
CA Nacional Potosí vs. Club Aurora - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x358004…e769
CA Nacional Potosí vs. Club Aurora - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x17ef7c…286b
CA Nacional Potosí vs. Club Aurora - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5acd73…d28f
CA Nacional Potosí vs. Club Aurora - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x5dc659…0555
CA Nacional Potosí vs. Club Aurora - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x8ebd75…2a03
CA Nacional Potosí vs. Club Aurora - More Markets: Club Aurora (-2.5)
0xd528db…1571
CA Nacional Potosí vs. Club Aurora - More Markets: CA Nacional Potosí (-2.5)
0x6d7e5b…734f
CA Nacional Potosí vs. Club Aurora - More Markets: CA Nacional Potosí (-1.5)
0xe31249…c81f
Analysis
This market reflects a 51% probability that both CA Nacional Potosí and Club Aurora will score at least one goal in their upcoming match. The current probability sits above the midpoint, suggesting traders view both teams as likely to find the net rather than one dominating defensively. Historically, two-way scoring outcomes in Bolivian football depend on team form, defensive stability, and offensive capability. The probability would rise if recent data shows both teams consistently scoring in recent fixtures, and would fall if either team enters the match depleted through injury or suspension. The match itself serves as the primary resolution event—the outcome becomes certain only when the final whistle sounds and the goal tally is recorded. Liquidity has been minimal recently, meaning the current price reflects a small but committed group of traders' assessments rather than broad market consensus.
- ›Both teams' goal-scoring rates and defensive records in recent matches indicate whether they typically participate in high-scoring games
- ›Availability of key offensive and defensive players due to injury, suspension, or international duty directly affects scoring likelihood
- ›Head-to-head historical results between CA Nacional Potosí and Club Aurora establish baseline expectations for competitive balance
- ›Current league standings and form trajectories for each team show momentum and attacking/defensive capability
- ›The match date and scheduling context (whether it follows a congested fixture period) impacts player fitness and tactical approach
What moved the line
- May 7Club Aurora (-1.5)↓16pp27→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 7O/U 1.5↑16pp68→84¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Club Aurora (-2.5)↓14pp24→10¢ · Polymarket
- May 7O/U 2.5↑9pp55→64¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Both Teams to Score↑9pp53→62¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.