CA Paranaense vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 16 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
34%
16 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
16 contracts
Closes
May 5, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets” vs “Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC - More Markets: O/U”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xc7601f…db86
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x47cce0…4716
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x33ab08…dfb5
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets: CD Riestra (-2.5)
0xe21ef7…84f6
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x13e665…5923
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xb86c02…e733
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets: CD Riestra (-1.5)
0xb9a1c0…18b0
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets: Grêmio FBPA (-2.5)
0x006111…5a96
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA - More Markets: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)
0xe873fe…a5b1
Cluster 2
Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 3
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 4
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5d58f6…ee3d
Cluster 5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x92fa6c…9a3a
Cluster 6
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x265119…772e
What moved the line
- May 6Grêmio FBPA (-2.5)↑88pp12→100¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)↑78pp22→100¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Both Teams to Score↓40pp40→0¢ · Polymarket
- May 6CD Riestra (-1.5)↓22pp22→0¢ · Polymarket
- May 6O/U 4.5↓20pp20→0¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 d ago.