CA-03 Primary Winners
Leader sits at 87% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 72%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ami Bera
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
72¢
Robb Tucker
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
9 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CA-03 Primary Winners
CA-03 Primary Winners: Lyndon Cervantes
0x92a88e…28fb
CA-03 Primary Winners: Robb Tucker
0x981852…8603
CA-03 Primary Winners: Laura Koscki
0x6bf1d9…fed9
CA-03 Primary Winners: Christine Bish
0x1aefad…d009
CA-03 Primary Winners: Chris Bennett
0x6b9a06…a98a
CA-03 Primary Winners: Heidi Hall
0x952691…5080
CA-03 Primary Winners: Chris Richardson
0x2b339c…22c7
CA-03 Primary Winners: Ami Bera
0xf52b77…470a
What moved the line
- May 21Chris Bennett↑8pp11→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 19Ami Bera↑7pp88→95¢ · Polymarket
- May 21Robb Tucker↓6pp75→69¢ · Polymarket
- May 24Ami Bera↓5pp92→87¢ · Polymarket
- May 20Chris Bennett↑4pp7→11¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In election 2026
Related reading
2026 Midterms: Democrats 85¢ for House, Texas Turning Purple
Democrats hold a commanding 85¢ price for House control while the Senate remains a toss-up; Texas shows surprising weakness with anti-tariff sentiment reshaping traditional Republican strongholds.
2026 House Race Tightens: Democrats slip 5¢, Republicans gain 3¢
Democratic odds to win the House fell 5¢ to 78¢ on Polymarket, while Republican odds rose 3¢ to 22¢ on Kalshi. The shift was driven by new polling showing improved Republican performance in swing districts. The generic ballot vote share is also tightening.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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