Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia
Leader sits at 41% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 38%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Saudi Arabia
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
38¢
Cabo Verde
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
49 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia
Analysis
This probability reflects expectations that Cabo Verde will defeat Saudi Arabia in an upcoming match. The 30% implied odds suggest Saudi Arabia is favored, though there's notable disagreement across markets—Polymarket traders assign significantly higher probability to Cabo Verde (34%) compared to Kalshi participants (16%), indicating uncertainty about team strength or match conditions. Key factors influencing this gap include differences in how traders weight recent performance data, player availability, and home-field advantage. The match outcome will be determined by actual play on the scheduled date, making this fundamentally a sports prediction with resolution dependent on the final score.
- ›Polymarket-Kalshi spread of 18 percentage points suggests material disagreement about underlying team strength or match circumstances
- ›Related markets on Saudi Arabia's performance versus Uruguay show low confidence in Saudi Arabia (13¢ contract), indicating broader skepticism about their competitive level
- ›Uruguay is heavily favored over both teams in cross-matchup comparisons (67¢ to beat Cabo Verde, suggesting Cabo Verde is considered weaker than both competitors
- ›Trading volume concentrated on higher-probability Saudi Arabia contracts ($1456 on Israel-Saudi relations) rather than direct team comparison suggests less direct market focus on this specific matchup
- ›Historical Kalshi-Polymarket divergence on sports outcomes typically narrows as event date approaches, indicating current gap may reflect timing differences in information arrival
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.