Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina
Leader sits at 54% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Canada
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
Draw (Canada vs. Bosnia and
Spread
29pp
contested
24h volume
$59
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 12, 2026
34 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Canada will defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina in an upcoming World Cup Group B match. The 33% probability suggests markets view Canada as an underdog in this contest, though the 8-percentage-point gap between venues indicates some disagreement about relative strength. Canada's recent FIFA ranking, head-to-head history, and current form relative to Bosnia and Herzegovina would primarily influence this outcome. The match result itself will definitively resolve this question once the game is played, eliminating all uncertainty around team performance on the day.
- ›Canada's current FIFA ranking and recent competitive record compared to Bosnia and Herzegovina's rankings and recent results
- ›Historical head-to-head match outcomes and goal differential between the two nations in competitive play
- ›Team composition changes, injury status of key players, and availability of regular starters for each squad
- ›Home/away advantage status if applicable, and pitch/climate conditions where the match will be contested
- ›Current betting lines from traditional sportsbooks for the same matchup, which may reflect different analytical approaches or risk assessments
What moved the line
- May 6Bosnia and Herzegovina↓3pp25→22¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.