Canada vs. Qatar
Leader sits at 62% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Canada
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
Draw (Canada vs. Qatar)
Spread
36pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 18, 2026
40 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Canada vs. Qatar
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Canada will defeat Qatar in an upcoming match. The current 34% assessment shows meaningful disagreement between venues, with Polymarket pricing Canada's chances substantially higher than Kalshi. Canada's probability could shift based on team form, injury status, and head-to-head record. Qatar's defensive capabilities and recent performance against comparable opponents represent the key counterweights. The scheduled match date itself serves as the primary catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty entirely. Broader factors include lineup changes closer to kickoff and any significant weather or venue conditions that might favor one side's playing style.
- ›Polymarket contracts price Canada 15 percentage points higher than Kalshi on average, indicating divergent information or risk appetite across platforms
- ›Canada's recent competitive record against teams ranked similarly to Qatar on FIFA standings will directly influence whether 34% undervalues or overvalues their chances
- ›Qatar's performance in their most recent international fixtures and current squad injury status represent concrete metrics affecting their likelihood to win or draw
- ›The 36¢ price on Switzerland vs. Canada Draw suggests market participants view a stalemate as plausible, which would push Canada's outright win probability lower
- ›Volume concentration on Qatar vs. Switzerland (at 10¢) indicates less overall confidence in Qatar as a standalone threat compared to Switzerland's strength
What moved the line
- May 6Qatar↑4pp18→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Canada↑3pp59→62¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Qatar↓3pp23→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Qatar↓3pp22→19¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.