Cannes Film Festival

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that a specific film will win the Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival, based on aggregated trading prices across multiple prediction contracts. The current 38% leader, with four other films clustered between 8-29%, reflects genuine uncertainty among market participants about which film the jury will select. The market structure suggests traders are pricing in several competitive contenders rather than a clear favorite. Key factors driving the probability include the critical reception and festival buzz surrounding each film, the composition of this year's jury panel and their documented preferences, and historical precedent for which types of films have won recently. The outcome will be definitively resolved when the official Palme d'Or is announced at Cannes, typically in late May, eliminating all current uncertainty in the market.

• ›The leading contract at 38% has substantially higher trading volume ($270 in 24h) compared to rivals, suggesting broader market consensus around 'HOPE' while other contenders remain fragmented
• ›The four-contract bundle representing the top candidates totals only 96% probability, indicating meaningful allocation to long-tail films outside the top five
• ›Trading volume is heavily concentrated in the frontrunner, with runner-up contracts showing minimal activity ($10 or less in 24h volume), reflecting low liquidity and potential mispricing in secondary positions
• ›The jury panel composition and individual members' past voting patterns would materially shift probabilities if known, creating information asymmetry
• ›The festival occurs in late May 2026, providing a definitive resolution date that should theoretically tighten probability ranges as event date approaches

What moved the line

• May 9Palme d'Or Winner: FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI↓6pp28→22¢ · Polymarket
• May 9Palme d'Or Winner: MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV↑4pp10→14¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds