Cannes Award for Best performance by an actor
Leader sits at 4% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Sebastian Stan
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Gilles Lellouche
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$184
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Cannes Award for Best performance by an actor
Cannes Award for Best performance by an actor?: Sebastian Stan
KXCANNESBESTACTOR-26-SEB
Cannes Award for Best performance by an actor?: Gilles Lellouche
KXCANNESBESTACTOR-26-GIL
Cannes Award for Best performance by an actor?: Niels Schneider
KXCANNESBESTACTOR-26-NIE
Analysis
This probability reflects the current estimated likelihood that a male actor will win the Best Actor award at the Cannes Film Festival. The 13% aggregate probability sits between notably divergent assessments: Kalshi's 5% estimate and Polymarket's 21% estimate, a 16-percentage-point gap suggesting disagreement about either the competitive field or recent developments in this year's awards race. The main drivers of this probability are the strength and recognition of specific nominated performances, historical patterns in Cannes jury decisions, and which films received the most critical acclaim before the festival. The award will be resolved when the Cannes Film Festival concludes and official winners are announced, typically in mid-May. Key uncertainties include which directors and films are selected for competition, critical reception during festival screenings, and jury composition preferences in any given year.
- ›Kalshi and Polymarket show a 16-percentage-point spread (5% vs 21%), indicating material disagreement about fundamentals rather than just normal market variance
- ›Cannes Film Festival's official competition lineup and jury selection have not yet occurred, creating baseline uncertainty about eligible candidates
- ›Historical Cannes acting awards show no clear dominant pattern favoring male over female acting winners across recent years
- ›Current top-contract volumes are low ($6-$17 daily volume on director markets, $55 on actress market), suggesting limited information discovery and thin liquidity
- ›The market includes multiple Cannes award contracts across categories (directors, actress, voice performance), but no clear consensus theme about this year's festival or competitive strength
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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