Cannes Award for Best performance by an actress
Leader sits at 10% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 7%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Léa Seydoux
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
7¢
Renate Reinsve
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$7
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
237 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Cannes Award for Best performance by an actress
Cannes Award for Best performance by an actress?: Sandra Hüller
KXCANNESBESTACTRESS-26-SAND
Cannes Award for Best performance by an actress?: Renate Reinsve
KXCANNESBESTACTRESS-26-REN
Cannes Award for Best performance by an actress?: Léa Seydoux
KXCANNESBESTACTRESS-26-LEAS
Cannes Award for Best performance by an actress?: Yana Radeva
KXCANNESBESTACTRESS-26-YAN
Cannes Award for Best performance by an actress?: Virginie Efira
KXCANNESBESTACTRESS-26-VIR
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance that a female actress will win the Best Actress award at the Cannes Film Festival. The 19% aggregate masks a significant disagreement between venues: Kalshi's 6% suggests low confidence in any specific actress emerging as the favorite, while Polymarket's 36% indicates broader expectation of competitive races among contenders. The main drivers are the quality and visibility of female-led films in this year's competition and whether any performance generates critical consensus. The Cannes Film Festival award announcement, typically in mid-May, will directly resolve this contract. Until then, the divergence between betting markets reflects genuine uncertainty about both the festival's official competition lineup and which actresses might be nominated or favored by voters.
- ›Sandra Hüller (Kalshi: 5¢) is the only female performer with meaningful contract volume, suggesting limited market consensus on frontrunners
- ›Kalshi's significantly lower pricing (6% vs 36%) indicates either structural market differences or skepticism that clear odds can be established for this category
- ›The contracts reference specific actresses (Hüller) and directors (Mungiu, Pawlikowski), but low volumes ($50-70 per contract) suggest thin liquidity and limited historical betting activity
- ›Polymarket's 30-point premium over Kalshi indicates traders there price higher probability of a female actress winning relative to Kalshi's more conservative estimate
- ›Cannes announcement timing (typically mid-May) provides hard resolution date that should collapse current price disagreement between venues
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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