Cannes Award for Best Director
Leader sits at 10% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Na Hong-jin
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$10
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Cannes Award for Best Director
Cannes Award for Best Director?: Ryusuke Hamaguchi
KXCANNESBESTDIRECTOR-26-RYU
Cannes Award for Best Director?: Paweł Pawlikowski
KXCANNESBESTDIRECTOR-26-PAW
Cannes Award for Best Director?: Cristian Mungiu
KXCANNESBESTDIRECTOR-26-CRI
Cannes Award for Best Director?: Na Hong-jin
KXCANNESBESTDIRECTOR-26-NAH
Cannes Award for Best Director?: Hirokazu Koreeda
KXCANNESBESTDIRECTOR-26-HIR
Analysis
This market reflects the estimated likelihood that a filmmaker will win the Palme d'Or or Best Director award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. The current 12% probability suggests traders view this outcome as unlikely relative to other possible winners. The wide disagreement between venues—Polymarket pricing at 54% versus Kalshi at 10%—indicates genuine uncertainty about how to value this specific award. Resolution depends on the festival's official selection and jury decision, typically occurring in May. Key drivers include the strength of the director's submitted film compared to other international entries, jury composition and voting preferences, and historical patterns of award distribution across countries and film genres.
- ›The 44-percentage-point gap between Polymarket (54%) and Kalshi (10%) suggests different trader bases may be pricing different directors or interpreting eligibility criteria differently
- ›Cannes Film Festival occurs annually in May; the 2026 ceremony timing and jury announcement would crystallize the outcome
- ›Historical Palme d'Or distribution shows European and internationally acclaimed directors win frequently, but outcomes remain difficult to predict before official competition slate is announced
- ›Individual contract prices on Kalshi show Cristian Mungiu at 7¢ and Paweł Pawlikowski at 3¢, indicating traders are not yet assigning high probability to specific named directors
- ›Low 24-hour trading volume ($67 maximum on individual Cannes Best Director contracts) suggests limited market liquidity and potential for prices to shift on new information about submitted films
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.